Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 1651 · DCA → LAS
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.