Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 1798 · ELP → DEN
departs 4:15 PM MT · arrives 6:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 50%
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from ELP are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.23 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.