Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 1817 · PHX → MCO
departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 13%
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.33 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.