Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 1817 · PHX → MCO
departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.