Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2184 · LAS → AUS
departs 3:25 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 48%
Thu 10/1 52%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.10 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.