Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 2184 · LAS → AUS
departs 3:25 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.