Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2235
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2235 · LAS → FAT
departs 3:10 PM PT · arrives 4:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 20%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±1 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.