Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 2280 · SJC → LAS
departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 7:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 2%
Thu 10/1 3%
Fri 10/2 3%
Mon 10/5 3%
Tue 10/6 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SJC are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.