Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 2409 · LAX → MCO
departs 10:05 PM PT · arrives 6:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 19%
Thu 10/1 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.