Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2416 LANDED 9:29 PM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 2416 · SNA → SMF

took off 8:22 PM PT · landed 9:29 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2416 · SNA → SMF

Odds over time