Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2782 · DEN → TUS
departs 3:20 PM MT · arrives 4:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 68%
Sun 10/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.