Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2817 LANDED 9:06 PM ET, ~13 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 2817 · DEN → JAX

took off 4:23 PM MT · landed 9:06 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2817 · DEN → JAX

Odds over time