Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2953 LANDED 10:47 AM MT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 2953 · MTJ → DEN

took off 10:03 AM MT · landed 10:47 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MTJ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MTJ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2953 · MTJ → DEN

Odds over time