Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3078 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:22 PM MT, ETA 8:25 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3078 · DEN → ORF

took off 3:22 PM MT · expected to land 8:25 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3078 · DEN → ORF

Odds over time