Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3254 · PHX → DAL
departs 7:15 AM MT · arrives 11:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 11%
Thu 10/1 22%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 5%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.