Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3274 · PHX → HNL
departs 9:30 AM MT · arrives 12:55 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 33%
Thu 10/1 27%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.