Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 3403 · SAN → PHX
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 36%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.