Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3504 LANDED 4:50 PM MT, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 3504 · SFO → DEN

took off 1:41 PM PT · landed 4:50 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3504 · SFO → DEN

Odds over time