Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 3731 · SJU → TPA
departs 8:40 PM AT · arrives 11:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 35%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from SJU are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,840 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.