Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3799 · SMF → MCO
departs 10:10 PM PT · arrives 6:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 9%
Thu 10/1 12%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.