Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3816 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3816 · MDW → MSP

departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±7 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3816 · MDW → MSP

Odds over time