Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 3838 · LAS → SAN
departs 8:20 PM PT · arrives 9:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±8 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.