Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4160
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4160 · SAN → LAS
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 35%
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 46%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.