Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4168
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4168 · DEN → PHL
departs 12:25 PM MT · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.