Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4168
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4168 · DEN → PHL
departs 12:25 PM MT · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Wed 9/30
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±9 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.44 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.