Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4177 · DTW → LAS
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 30%
Thu 10/1 26%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 21%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.