Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4181 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:18 PM CT, ETA 6:36 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4181 · BNA → DCA

took off 4:18 PM CT · expected to land 6:36 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4181 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time