Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4196 · LAS → SEA
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 25%
Sun 10/4 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.