Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4224 · ELP → PHX
departs 6:40 AM MT · arrives 7:00 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 8%
Thu 10/1 4%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.23 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.