Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4224 · ELP → PHX
departs 6:40 AM MT · arrives 7:00 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 4%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.