Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4240 · MCI → LAS
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 6:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 29%
Thu 10/1 31%
Fri 10/2 25%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.