Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4270
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4270 · LAS → OAK
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 24%
Thu 10/1 28%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.