Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4286 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:35 PM CT, ETA 10:13 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4286 · HOU → DCA

took off 6:35 PM CT · expected to land 10:13 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4286 · HOU → DCA

Odds over time