Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4381 LANDED 9:04 PM MT, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4381 · PHX → TUS

took off 8:36 PM MT · landed 9:04 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

TUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4381 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time