Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4409 LANDED 6:20 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4409 · ABQ → BWI

took off 1:03 PM MT · landed 6:20 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.70 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4409 · ABQ → BWI

Odds over time