Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4470 LANDED 12:27 PM CT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4470 · SAT → DAL

took off 11:38 AM CT · landed 12:27 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4470 · SAT → DAL

Odds over time