Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4474 · BNA → HOU
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 11:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 30%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 47%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.