Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4541 · LAX → MDW
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 36%
Thu 10/1 41%
Fri 10/2 37%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.