Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4554 · LAX → OAK
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 33%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.