Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4590 · LAS → MCO
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 6:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1 23%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.