Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4590 · LAS → MCO
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 6:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 24%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.