Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4635 LANDED 6:52 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4635 · LAS → SAN

took off 6:12 PM PT · landed 6:52 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±1 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4635 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time