Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4653 LANDED 6:05 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4653 · LAS → SAT

took off 1:53 PM PT · landed 6:05 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4653 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time