WN 4653 · LAS → SAT

departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 5:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4653 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?