Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 4693 · OAK → LAS
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 2:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 39%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.