Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 4799 · MIA → BNA
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.21 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.