Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4815 LANDED 5:00 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4815 · BWI → DAL

took off 3:29 PM ET · landed 5:00 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4815 · BWI → DAL

Odds over time