Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4826 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4826 · IND → DEN

departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IND are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4826 · IND → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?