Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4874 · SAN → MCO
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 5:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 14%
Thu 10/1 25%
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.