Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4877
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4877 · SJC → LAX
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 18%
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.